This will be an important 2026 Draft Lottery for several WNBA teams. According to Tankathon, the Dallas Wings, Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm, Washington Mystics, and the Chicago Sky have the best odds, but there is an important wrinkle that pertains specifically to the Sky.
Chicago traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Minnesota Lynx for the 11th overall pick the day before the 2025 WNBA Draft, which ended up being Hailey Van Lith out of TCU — a former teammate of Angel Reese's at LSU. The Lynx already had the right to swap their pick with the Sky, but now they get the full rights to it. In summary, the Sky do not have their 2026 first-round pick.
However, Chicago will still have a lottery pick in the draft. According to ESPN, the Connecticut Sun traded their 2025 first-round pick to Chicago, which turned out to be Ajsa Sivka, who has stayed overseas and has not played in the WNBA yet. Along with the pick, the Sky received Rachel Banham, Moriah Jefferson, and a 2026 first-round Sun pick swap.
The pick swap is very important, as an earlier blockbuster trade centered around Kahleah Copper, sent the Mercury’s 2026 first-round pick, among other assets, to Chicago, according to ESPN’s Alexa Philippou.
Those other assets included Brianna Turner, Michaela Onyenwere, the 2024 3rd overall pick, which ended up being South Carolina’s Kamilla Cardoso, the Mercury’s 2025 second-round pick, which was moved, and the right to swap 2026 second-round picks with Phoenix.
Having the Mercury’s first round pick at No. 12 means that the Sky can swap with the Sun’s pick, which gets us to now.
According to Tankathon, Chicago will have a 7% chance of getting the first pick, a 9.3% chance of getting the second pick, and an 83.7% chance of getting the fifth pick. All three options would be premium picks, but the Sky would love to get lucky and land in the top two.
If you do the math on the probability of each team getting each slot, there is a 9.75% chance that the pick that they are getting from the Sun ends up being better than their original pick.
Overall, in what is supposed to be a very strong 2026 WNBA draft class, the lottery will be crucial in the way Chicago builds their team. You are more likely to draft a franchise-altering player in the top two than at five, but regardless, it should be in position to acquire a quality piece.
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Palmer has written for GiantKiller, a George Mason Men's Basketball site, and Kenner League, a DC-area Summer League. He's now looking to continue the standard of excellence that has been set by the writers at On SI.
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