While Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing double-digit drops, Pi Coin is showing a monthly growth of nearly 11%. However, beneath this strength lies a concerning technical setup: a head and shoulders pattern that could potentially lead to a 34% price decline if the bullish momentum fades. Holding above the $0.29 level is crucial for token holders as it marks a point of no return.
Written by Simon Dumoulin
Translated on November 27, 2025 at 14:20 by Simon Dumoulin
Pi Coin surprised the market in November with an 11% rally, a performance that stands in stark contrast to the losses suffered by Bitcoin (-20%) and Ethereum (-26%). Over the past 24 hours, the token has gained another 2.24%, confirming a short-term bullish trend that is catching traders’ attention.
However, this outperformance should not obscure the warning signals revealed by chart analysis. The momentum remains fragile, and the current price structure suggests that Pi Coin is walking a tightrope. Any slowdown in the advance could rapidly transform this rally into a trap for late buyers.
The contrast with major cryptocurrencies is striking, but it reflects more token-specific volatility than genuine structural decoupling. Volume remains worth monitoring, as it often constitutes the first indicator of an imminent reversal in this type of technical configuration.
Technical analysis clearly identifies a head and shoulders formation, one of the most reliable bearish reversal patterns in trading. The neckline sits around $0.21, a level acting as the last line of defense before a major correction.
Should Pi Coin close below this threshold, the classic pattern measurement projects a 34% decline. This projection is obtained by measuring the distance between the head’s peak and the neckline, then projecting this amplitude downward. The theoretical target would then be around $0.19, or even lower if market sentiment deteriorates.
To invalidate this bearish scenario, Pi Coin must imperatively break through the $0.29 level. A daily close above this threshold would cancel the head and shoulders formation and open the door to a new bullish expansion phase. Until this confirmation, every price movement must be interpreted with caution.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds a layer of concern with a hidden bearish divergence observed between November 20 and 26. While the price formed a lower low, the RSI showed a higher high, signaling an exhaustion of bullish momentum. This type of divergence typically tends to extend the dominant trend; however, over 30 days, the underlying trend remains weak despite recent gains.
Currently trading around $0.26, Pi Coin finds itself in a zone of technical indecision. The first immediate support sits near $0.23, a level that absolutely must hold to avoid bearish acceleration.
If this support gives way, attention will turn to the $0.20 to $0.22 zone, which corresponds precisely to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. A break of this zone with a daily close below would mechanically trigger the full 34% bearish projection.
Conversely, breaking through $0.29 with convincing volume would constitute a strong technical buy signal. This breakout would invalidate the bearish scenario and confirm that buyers have regained control of the price action. In this case, Pi Coin could target higher levels and consolidate its outperformance against major cryptocurrencies.
The message from the charts is unambiguous: Pi Coin cannot afford to slow down now. Its bullish trajectory survives only as long as the advance continues. The next move will determine whether we’re witnessing a genuine bullish breakout or a classic bull trap.
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