The traditional four-year cycle may lose relevance as Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated into traditional financial markets, says Bitcoin Suisse CEO Andrej Majcen in an interview. He also explains why he believes his company is in a privileged position.
More articles
Mr. Majcen, in your Crypto Outlook 2025 you describe a fundamental paradigm shift in the crypto-asset industry. Has the four-year crypto cycle, shaped by Bitcoin halvings, lost relevance?
While Halvings remain an essential milestone in the crypto calendar, we see potential in the coming years for disruption of the traditional four-year cycle.
What does that mean?
Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin and other crypto-assets have been significantly more integrated into traditional financial markets. The approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. in 2024 opened the asset class to a new circle of investors operating through established trading channels, software solutions, and platforms. In addition, many of the largest and most renowned banks now offer crypto custody and trading – some are even planning to issue their own stablecoins.
On the regulatory side, the U.S. government, the state of Texas, Abu Dhabi, and other jurisdictions have taken steps to utilize crypto tokens as strategic reserve assets. In Europe, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) is creating, for the first time, a reliable framework for crypto-asset service providers across the European Economic Area.
«Even though Bitcoin is more accessible today than ever before, it still follows its own supply and demand fundamentals.»
With growing institutional and governmental exposure to Bitcoin, scenarios are conceivable where the four-year cycle is softened by other market dynamics – while the asset itself gains importance as a strategic building block of the global financial system. Traditionally, investors perceived Bitcoin as an uncorrelated outsider.
What relevance does Bitcoin have if it becomes increasingly tied into traditional markets?
Fortunately, integration does not necessarily mean correlation. Even though Bitcoin can now be bought and traded more easily than ever before, it still follows its own supply and demand dynamics, which are often only weakly connected to other asset classes.
«Bitcoin has turned what some might view as a weakness into a core strength.»
Our own research, published in the Bitcoin Suisse Industry Rollup in May, confirms Bitcoin’s increasing independence. Compared with bonds, commodities, gold, real estate, and equities, Bitcoin shows by far the lowest average correlation to other asset classes.
With Bitcoin’s dominance above 60 percent over the past twelve months, what sets it apart from other crypto-assets?
Bitcoin has turned what some may see as a weakness into a strength. It does not support smart contracts or staking, nor does it claim to serve as the base layer for a new system of cloud storage, logistics, or decentralized infrastructure. Instead, it has a very clear and widely understood use case: Bitcoin is a store-of-value asset. To fulfill this purpose, it requires neither a roadmap, nor technical upgrades, nor societal transformation. It is a highly robust blockchain. These factors make the investment thesis for Bitcoin compelling.
This does not diminish the ambitions or innovative strength of other altcoins. They are simply at an earlier stage of maturity, and the full extent of their potential is not yet equally understood.
What role will Bitcoin play in wealth management portfolios in 2025?
What role will Bitcoin play in wealth management portfolios in 2025?
The fascinating aspect of Bitcoin is its now truly unique role. Investors familiar with traditional asset classes usually differentiate between risk-on assets such as technology stocks or emerging markets, and risk-off assets such as gold or government bonds. So far, crypto-assets were typically placed in the first category.
Our latest analyses, however, show that Bitcoin combines elements of both. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes makes it a strong macroeconomic hedge, while it simultaneously remains a high-conviction growth asset – as evidenced by the fact that over 86 percent of its total supply is currently in profit.
«We own and directly control the majority of our systems.»
This combination distinguishes Bitcoin from other assets and provides strong arguments for its inclusion in wealth management portfolios. Moreover, Bitcoin’s ability to enhance risk-adjusted returns is well-documented. For example, adding a 10 percent Bitcoin allocation to a broadly diversified 60/40 portfolio over the past ten years increased its Sharpe ratio more than threefold.
As more large banks and financial service providers enter the crypto-asset industry, what added value can a specialist like Bitcoin Suisse still provide?
In discussions with our clients, it consistently becomes clear that they particularly value the depth of our expertise. Unlike some banks and new market entrants, our relationship managers are 100 percent focused on crypto-assets, while our research team has developed specialized metrics and taxonomies to better understand the sector with consistent frameworks. Combined with our twelve years of pioneering experience, we offer a depth of knowledge and expertise that few can match.
This is also reflected in our infrastructure. We own and directly control most of our systems – including the core technologies behind our custody, trading, staking, and lending solutions. This independence allows us to tailor our services precisely to client needs.
Overall, we are in a privileged position: we combine deep native expertise, proprietary institutional-grade infrastructure, and the service level one would expect from a first-class financial institution.