XRP snapped a three-day winning streak on Tuesday, October 21, with the US Senate stalemate extending to Day 21. The token failed to break out from $2.5, leading to a pullback to the $2.4 level as traders locked in profits.
The prolonged US government shutdown has continued to delay the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, previously expected to begin trading by Monday, October 20. Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise had final decision deadlines of October 18, 19, and 20. Crucially, analysts had expected the SEC to approve all seven spot ETFs on October 17 to prevent any first-to-market advantage.
Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree are likely to face approval delays for their S-1 forms, postponing the anticipated inflow of institutional money into XRP-spot ETFs.
For XRP-spot ETF issuers, the delay to SEC approvals could mean increased competition with other crypto-spot ETFs, potentially dampening demand. Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst, shared details of pending crypto-spot ETF launches, stating:
“There’s now 155 crypto ETP filings tracking 35 different digital assets. Could easily end up seeing over 200 hit mkt in next 12mo. Total land rush.”
According to the list compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart, there have been 23 Solana-spot and 23 BTC-spot ETF filings since 2024, topping the table. XRP-spot ETF filings totaled 20, while there were 10 ETH-spot ETF filings. The large numbers underscored the competitive landscape.
The conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple case, following the appeal withdrawals, raised expectations of a swift approval of XRP-spot ETFs. However, the SEC’s pushback on green-lighting spot ETFs means XRP-spot ETF issuers could face stern competition. The SEC could approve all crypto-spot ETFs to prevent one token from having a first-to-market advantage.
Nate Geraci, NovaDius Wealth Management President, commented on the sheer number of planned crypto-spot ETF launches, stating:
“My takeaway from this… Highly bullish on index-based & actively managed crypto ETFs. No way tradefi investors ready to navigate all of these single tokens. They’re going to take a diversified, shotgun approach to an emerging asset class. Seems obvious.”
Notably, the US Senate impasse and delays to XRP-spot ETF launches overshadowed news of Evernorth planning to build a $1 billion XRP treasury reserve. Market experts anticipate strong demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset key to future price gains.
XRP fell 2.95% on Tuesday, October 21, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.47% rally to close at $2.4242. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which dropped 2.13%. The pullback left XRP trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.
Key technical levels to watch include:
In the coming sessions, several scenarios could influence near-term price trends:
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.4
These bearish events could push XRP toward the $2.4 level. A drop below $2.4 may enable the bears to target the $2.0 psychological support level.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3
These bullish scenarios could send XRP above the $2.5 level, bringing $2.7 into sight. A sustained move through $2.7 would open the door to testing resistance at $3.0.
XRP’s near-term price outlook hinges on the shutdown. A continued delay could see XRP give up recent gains, given the absence of sticky institutional money.
Traders should closely monitor developments in Washington, given that a government reopening would enable the SEC to approve the S-1s.
XRP could approach and potentially break above the $3.0 handle if the US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill. A government reopening could deliver a perfect storm, as analysts bet on multiple Fed rate cuts, XRP-spot ETF launches, and increasing XRP stockpiling for treasury reserve purposes.
Crucially, a government reopening would also put the spotlight on the Market Structure Bill. Crypto-friendly legislation may boost sentiment, potentially sending XRP to new highs.
Capitol Hill holds the key to XRP’s next move. A Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill could determine whether XRP reclaims $3 or slides toward $2.
Traders should closely monitor Capitol Hill and US-China trade headlines.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.
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