Bitcoin broke above $120,000, a level not seen since mid-August, as traders position for a bullish October for risk assets.
The token has been climbing steadily over the past five days, recovering from a late September pullback. Analysts point to renewed optimism around macroeconomic tailwinds that could boost risk assets in the final quarter of the year.
In the derivatives market, BTC futures are flashing bullish signals with open interest reaching a record high of $32.6 billion, suggesting traders are positioning for further upside. On-chain analyst Skew noted that short positions are also piling up, which could create an opportunity for a short squeeze.
Traders will be particularly focused on the next Fed meeting at the end of this month, which could happen without access to a fresh jobs report amid the government shutdown. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the shutdown could further weaken the economy
“We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America," he said.
Though historically the impact of a government shutdown on the economy has been minor, President Donald Trump’s threat to fire roughly 750,000 federal workers could have an effect in the current climate.
Appetite for crypto could also be fueled by hopes for an incoming altcoin season as several applications for altcoin-related spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely see approval once the government reopens.
Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF is due for a response today with others facing deadlines between Oct. 10 and 24. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), however, confirmed on Wednesday that it will not review any applications during the shutdown.
Similar to bitcoin, altcoins were trading higher over the past 24 hours, led by which was up nearly 3%. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the performance of the 20 largest crypto assets, is 1.5% higher over the same period.
Paul Howard, senior director of crypto trading firm Wincent, was skeptical earlier this week about bitcoin's rebound, but he flipped bullish seeing the strength of the past days' advance.
"With $BTC trading back at levels last seen in mid-July, the total market cap is once again above $4 trillion," he noted. "We have seen a slow grind higher breaking above $115,000, indicating we are now more likely to stay above this level, with a CME gap to lock in the floor at $110,000."
"I believe we are now set to see a sustained rally above $120,000 in the coming weeks," he added.
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