3 December 2025 at 19:57 UTC
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has successfully rebounded, passing the important $93,000 price point that many market participants have been watching. This comeback is seen as a necessary relief rally, pushing Bitcoin’s price up to $93,007.12, which marks a 6.6% increase in just the last 24 hours.
After several weeks of falling prices, this price reversal seems strong and is supported by three main factors working together: significant changes in global economic policies (macroeconomic policy shifts), the fact that large investment firms can now easily buy and sell Bitcoin (unprecedented institutional distribution access), and certain patterns on the price charts that suggested a bounce was due (highly compressed technical indicators).
Source: TradingView
First, the US central bank (Federal Reserve) has officially ended its program of removing money from the economy (Quantitative Tightening or QT), which means they are now moving toward a policy that makes money more easily available (accommodating monetary policy). This boost in available money, or liquidity injection, has happened at the same time as a major shift in how large financial institutions view Bitcoin.
Second, investment firm Vanguard, which manages $9 trillion, has made it easier for its clients to access Bitcoin through certain investment products (third-party crypto ETFs).
Third, technical analysis suggests a huge move is coming. The price charts show that the price swings (volatility) have been at historic lows, a pattern that has always happened right before a massive, rapid price increase (parabolic price movements).
While these factors suggest the price is heading strongly upward and could soon go above $100,000, there is an immediate risk: the market remains fragile.
There is not enough trading volume right now (market depth has not fully recovered), meaning there isn’t much liquidity. In this kind of environment, the market is highly prone to large, sudden price swings, making it very sensitive to any bad news or unexpected selling that forces traders to quickly close their positions (liquidation events).
However, because the fundamental drivers such as money flowing from central banks and real demand from major financial institutions are so strong, experts believe this price momentum is likely to last and is more than just a temporary fluctuation.
The money flowing from large investment firms into Bitcoin has made a significant turnaround, suggesting that a period where money was rapidly leaving the market is over. Investment products known as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing money flow back in (net inflows), reversing four straight weeks where over $4.3 billion had been pulled out. Although the first week’s rebound was modest at about $70 million, this shift confirms that institutional money is actively returning to the market.
This money is not just coming from one source. While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is recovering, major inflows went into funds managed by Fidelity ($77.5 million) and ARK 21Shares ($88 million), showing a broad return of interest across many institutional players. These ETFs now manage over $119 billion and hold 6.5% of all existing Bitcoin, making them a permanent and crucial source of demand.
A huge structural change, dubbed the “Vanguard Effect,” also boosted demand. Vanguard, one of the world’s largest investment managers with up to $10 trillion in assets, started allowing its clients to buy crypto ETFs and mutual funds tied to Bitcoin and other digital assets (like ETH, XRP, and SOL) on its platform.
This move created immediate and massive demand, causing Bitcoin’s price to jump 6% right when the US market opened. On that first day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1 billion in trading volume in the first half-hour alone. By making it easier for cautious, long-term investments, such as retirement and pension funds, to buy Bitcoin, Vanguard has permanently expanded the asset’s reach, ensuring strong, sustained demand well into 2026.
The confluence of positive structural and technical factors lends strong support to bullish forecasts heading into 2026.
Looking at structure and the setup appears highly bullish, the path forward will likely be non-linear and volatile.
The four-hour chart below has seen a shift in structure with price breaking above the previous swing high and resting on support at 91804.
Resistance to the upside may be found at 95000 before the 97000 and 100000 handles come into focus.
A potential pullback toward 90000 or the recent breakout at around the 86600 mark cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.
The primary immediate risks center on macroeconomic data surprises. Any unexpectedly high reading in the PCE Inflation Data or stronger-than-expected labor reports could quickly dampen December rate cut expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in the relief rally.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
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About the Author
Market Analyst
Zain is an experienced financial markets analyst and educator with a rich tapestry of experience in the world of retail forex, economics, and market analysis. Initially starting out in a sales and business development role, his passion for economics and technical analysis propelled him towards a career as an analyst.
He has spent the last 3 years in an analyst role honing his skills across various financial domains, including technical analysis, economic data interpretation, price action strategies, and analyzing the geopolitical impacts on global markets. Currently, Zain is advancing in obtaining his Capital Markets & Security Analyst (CMSA) designation through the Corporate Finance Institute (CFI), where he has completed modules in fixed income fundamentals, portfolio management fundamentals, equity market fundamentals, introduction to capital markets, and derivative fundamentals.
He is also a regular guest on radio and television programs in South Africa, providing insight into global markets and the economy. Additionally, he has contributed to the development of a financial markets course approved by BankSeta (Banking Sector Education and Training Authority) at NQF level 6 in South Africa.
Zain is an experienced financial markets analyst and educator with a rich tapestry of experience in the world of retail forex, economics, and market analysis. Initially starting out in a sales and business development role, his passion for economics and technical analysis propelled him towards a career as an analyst.
He has spent the last 3 years in an analyst role honing his skills across various financial domains, including technical analysis, economic data interpretation, price action strategies, and analyzing the geopolitical impacts on global markets. Currently, Zain is advancing in obtaining his Capital Markets & Security Analyst (CMSA) designation through the Corporate Finance Institute (CFI), where he has completed modules in fixed income fundamentals, portfolio management fundamentals, equity market fundamentals, introduction to capital markets, and derivative fundamentals.
He is also a regular guest on radio and television programs in South Africa, providing insight into global markets and the economy. Additionally, he has contributed to the development of a financial markets course approved by BankSeta (Banking Sector Education and Training Authority) at NQF level 6 in South Africa.
MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.