Bitcoin’s October performance has taken a sharp turn as market prediction platform Polymarket reports a 52% chance that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could fall below $100,000 this month. The data comes amid rising bearish sentiment and a steady decline in Bitcoin’s price, which has reversed early-month gains and shaken investor confidence after reaching a new all-time high earlier in October.
According to Polymarket’s latest data, traders have become increasingly cautious as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its price momentum. The platform’s prediction market shows a 52% probability that Bitcoin will trade under $100,000 before the end of October. This reflects a growing pessimism that contrasts with the optimism that fueled the start of the month.
Polymarket also reported a 39% increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting more traders expect further declines. This change in market outlook follows Bitcoin’s sharp correction from its peak, as many investors are now seeking safer positions. Market analysts say that the reversal in sentiment may be linked to broader economic uncertainties and reduced trading volumes.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen 7.40% in recent days, extending its losses to 8.26% for the month, according to CoinMarketCap data. The cryptocurrency had reached a new all-time high of $126,198 on October 6 but has since failed to sustain the bullish momentum that characterized the start of the month.
The shift occurred around October 10, when the market saw a sharp drop that triggered widespread selling. Since then, the price has struggled to recover, with traders noting the absence of strong buying support. The market’s failure to maintain its “Uptober” trend—usually known for positive October gains—has raised questions about whether Bitcoin can stabilize before month-end.
Despite the downturn, institutional investors remain active, though with more restraint. Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, continues to purchase Bitcoin weekly but has reduced the size of its acquisitions due to the ongoing price weakness. The firm’s approach shows confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin while acknowledging the current market uncertainty.
Other institutions have also maintained their exposure but are reportedly waiting for more stable conditions before expanding their holdings. Analysts suggest that institutional buying may help prevent deeper corrections, though a break below $100,000 could still trigger new rounds of liquidations and selling pressure.
As October progresses, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $100,000 remains uncertain. Traders and analysts are watching key support levels to assess whether the market can regain stability or face another major correction.
While the current price decline has reduced short-term optimism, some market participants believe that lower prices could attract new buyers in the coming weeks. However, the balance between cautious investors and risk-takers will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of the month.
For now, Polymarket’s 52% probability signals a near-even split among traders, reflecting a fragile mood across the crypto market as it waits to see whether Bitcoin can avoid falling below the $100,000 mark
Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience in market analysis and expert commentary. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University and is known for meticulous research in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured in top publications including Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Coinedition, and Analytics Insight. Kelvin specializes in uncovering emerging crypto trends and delivering data-driven analyses to help readers make informed decisions. Outside of work, he enjoys chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures.
TLDR Jefferies stock bounces back, but $715M scandal draws legal scrutiny. Legal probes hit Jefferies…
Never Miss Another Opportunity.
Get hand selected news & info from our Crypto Experts so you can make educated, informed decisions that directly affect your crypto profits!
Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.
BC Game Crypto: 100% Bonus & 400 Free Casino Spins, Claim Here!