Jakarta, Pintu News – The Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.17, struggling to maintain its structure as 2025 comes to an end. The coin has mostly moved down throughout the quarter, which suggests that the year-end strength that Dogecoin usually has may not show up this time around.
Traders who normally expect a strong performance in the fourth quarter from Dogecoin are now watching closely, hoping for a significant change at the end of the year. However, the market mood this time seems very different compared to the last few years.
The cause behind this weaker fourth-quarter performance lies in what’s happening behind the scenes – among the holders, whales, and traders who used to be the main drivers of Dogecoin’s biggest rallies.
On November 13, 2025, Dogecoin saw a 2.20% increase in price over the past 24 hours, trading at $0.1745, which is equivalent to IDR 2,931. During this period, the DOGE price fluctuated between IDR 2,984 and IDR 2,801.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin’s market capitalization is approximately IDR 441.05 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of around IDR 30.79 trillion.
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To understand why this quarter has been tougher, we need to look back at Dogecoin’s consistent trend in the fourth quarter. The meme coin usually ends the year on a high – posting a 14.2% gain in 2022, 44.2% in 2023, and 176.6% in 2024.
However, the 2025 pattern seems to be in rapid decline, and much of this weakness is related to holder behavior on the blockchain.
Dogecoin’s HODL Waves, a metric that shows how long investors hold onto their coins, showed a decline in trust.
This steady decline means fewer coins are staying put in wallets – more coins are returning to circulation, increasing the risk of selling pressure.
Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million Dogecoin have sold off sharply since October 11, reducing their stash from 24.61 billion to 20.33 billion Dogecoin. At the current DOGE price of $0.17, this equates to a drop in value of around $730 million.
The largest group, which holds more than 1 billion Dogecoin, has been trading in and out throughout the year without forming a clear buying trend.
The only steady accumulation comes from mid-tier whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion Dogecoin, who have increased their balance from 27.68 billion to 32.38 billion since October 28.
The problem is that these groups of whales are moving in opposite directions. Without alignment among large holders, price momentum struggles to develop, making this fourth quarter weaker than any other since 2020, despite the buzz regarding ETFs.
The weekly On-Balance Volume (OBV) chart, which tracks whether price movements are supported by real buying, has fallen below the trendline for the first time since early 2025.
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When OBV has decreased, it means that the price recovery occurred without the support of solid volume. In other words, the price surge is not supported by a noticeable flow of funds – a sign that the rally may quickly fade.
Dogecoin derivatives data adds to this caution. On Gate.io, one of the largest perpetual markets, the total liquidation of short positions reached $776.75 million, while long positions stood at just $151.77 million. This means there are more than five times the number of short positions compared to longs, showing how traders are taking more positions against Dogecoin. This data is valid for the next 30 days, until well into December.
Although this extreme imbalance is bearish, it can also create the potential for a short squeeze. If prices rise even slightly, some short positions could be forced to close, triggering a temporary surge.
However, without volume support from the OBV, the move is likely to stall around the key resistance.
Dogecoin’s weekly chart is still within the ascending channel that started in April 2025, although it is hardly obvious. This structure remains technically bullish, but the price is now right at its lower trend line – around $0.17.
If this support is broken and the DOGE price closes the weekly candle lower, the next zone is around $0.15. This would also mark the first complete drop in Dogecoin’s weekly structure in over seven months.
However, the RSI on the same time frame shows a chance of recovery.
Between October 6 and November 10, the price formed a higher low, while the RSI formed a lower low – a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern often indicates that the broader trend may still have one more leg up.
If the channel support holds and the RSI pattern plays out well, Dogecoin could attempt a 33% rebound towards $0.22. This level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement mark. This rebound theory could get a boost if the Bitwise Spot ETF launches in late November, driven by an automated approval process.
If Dogecoin can hold above $0.17 and reclaim $0.22, it will allow Dogecoin to limit losses in the fourth quarter – perhaps even closing 2025 with a slight uptick. However, if this channel breaks, its multi-quarter bullish setup will end, which could trigger a decline towards $0.15 or even lower by the end of 2025.
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*Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.
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