Written by
Ananda Banerjee
Edited by
Mohammad Shahid
Monad has dropped over 47% from its post-listing high in just four days. The Monad price chart shows a rapid launch spike followed by a sharp downside slide, a pattern similar to how Pi Coin traded immediately after its launch. Both are new layer-1 projects that launched with strong attention, but both slipped quickly after launch.
This piece compares the chart structures and then examines whether MON is exhibiting the same sustained weakness as Pi Coin, or if its own setup still indicates signs of stability.
Pi Coin lost 86.57% of its value within the first six weeks after listing and is now down more than 91% from its post-launch high.
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Monad has followed a similar opening path, dropping 47.57% from its peak in only four days.
Both charts show the same early traits:
The key difference is the market backdrop. Pi Coin launched during a stronger crypto environment earlier this year. And when it dropped, it couldn’t even recover half of its losses despite BTC hitting new highs in early October.
Monad is entering a weaker market where liquidity is thin and large assets are struggling to hold momentum. So the odds are certainly not in favor.
Even though the price-specific parallel between MON and PI is clear on the surface, the next step is to look deeper into Monad’s own chart and structure to see whether the weakness continues or if there are early signs of support forming.
Monad’s internal picture becomes weaker once we examine how big money has behaved since the listing week.
The first signal comes from CMF, which tracks whether bigger buyers are sending money into an asset or pulling it out. After the initial post-launch spike, the token stabilized near the end of October, which is when CMF became usable. From that point, the money-flow line has moved only one way — down.
Since October 27, CMF has dropped by more than 270% and has remained below zero for most of the decline. A fall under zero means larger buyers are stepping aside, not adding support.
Even big market players like Arthur Hayes have expressed doubts regarding Monad, citing the significant outflows of capital.
Arthur Hayes shares his thoughts on Monad
“I have no belief that this is a legitimate blockchain” 😬😬 pic.twitter.com/56g2ksWIkF
MON’s CMF is now sitting close to its lowest reading since the token went live, which usually signals that confidence from deeper pockets has not returned.
This mirrors what Pi Coin showed in its first twenty days. Its CMF collapsed by almost 330% early on, and the price drifted lower for weeks.
The second problem appears in the bull-bear power reading. BBP measures whether buyers or sellers have more control of momentum. When BBP leans this heavily negative while CMF keeps making new lows, even recoveries tend to be short-lived.
Taken together, these signs indicate that Monad is not yet attracting strong bidding. The MON price chart appears bearish, and both metrics indicate that buyers remain hesitant. Even if short-term bounces appear, a meaningful reversal looks difficult unless large amounts of money return and momentum turns upward.
With money flow weakening and sellers in full control, the last piece of the puzzle is the price structure itself. The short-term trend on the 4-hour Monad price chart has pointed down since November 26, and the candles have respected that slope without any meaningful shift.
In this phase, the chart works like a simple extension map where each failed bounce pushes the next level into focus.
If Monad loses $0.026, the slide can extend toward $0.023, which is the next clear continuation level on the trend-based extension. If momentum remains weak and money flow continues to decline, even $0.013 remains on the table as a deeper projection.
These levels appear far, but Pi Coin also continued to slide post-launch, and the similarity in the early structure is hard to ignore.
Any recovery attempt needs to start with a move back above $0.029. That only stabilizes the structure. The real shift appears only if Monad closes above $0.039 and then $0.040.
A push above those bands would break the current slope, rebuild confidence, and weaken the comparison with Pi Coin’s early chart.
For now, Monad trades under both of those marks, with money flow still near its lows and momentum held by sellers. Unless those two conditions flip, the path of least resistance remains down, and the parallel with Pi Coin stays alive rather than fading.
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