After a Monday night doubleheader, Week 2 is in the books, leaving us with twice as much data to dissect for the third week of the fantasy season. These are the 10 takeaways you need to know heading into Week 3.
The 2025 rookie running back class was heralded as one of the best of the decade. It gave us two first-round picks and depth for days. That was all before the pads got put on. Through two weeks, the class has given fantasy managers next to nothing.
What’s most notable is that all of them have workload concerns. Ashton Jeanty logged a 38 percent route rate last night, ceding work in the two-minute drill to Dylan Laube. Omarion Hampton split the carries (eight) and targets (two) evenly with Najee Harris.
RJ Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson are both part of committees with a surprise third running back in the mix. Tyler Badie has eight targets for the Broncos. That is more than Harvey and J.K. Dobbins combined. Rhamondre Stevenson has as many targets as Henderson while Antonio Gibson, who was more involved in Week 2, has six carries to Henderson’s eight.
Quinshon Judkins missed Week 1 and had his snaps limited in Week 2. He looks to be on a path to two-down work, though that might not be worth much on the Browns. Kaleb Johnson…
The Seahawks just recovered a kickoff in the end zone for a touchdown!
SEAvsPIT on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/0J1gEbqx4r
Oh boy.
I’ll be the first to tell you I don’t want to draft an old running back who I think will fade as the season goes on. But the atrocious start from all of the rookies taken in the first 100 picks serves as a reminder that we’re not picking players, we’re building rosters. Having a Stevenson-type around to drag your rookies to the midpoint of the season is non-negotiable.
Last week, I wrote about the Lions looking out of sync as they adjusted to life without Ben Johnson and multiple starting offensive linemen. They got rocked by the Packers in Week 1 but paid it forward over the weekend, dropping 52 on the Bears. The most notable turnaround came in the trenches. Jared Goff was pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1. That fell to 14 percent in Week 2, one of the lowest marks in the league. Goff ranked third in the league in YPA (9.3) from a clean pocket in 2024. His 30 touchdown passes trailed only Baker Mayfield. His YPA is down to 7.6 through two weeks, but the touchdown production is still elite, with six scores from a clean pocket, five of which came in Week 2. The Lions might be affected by bad matchups more often this year, but they still have the horses to whallop lesser teams.
C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams both had fatal flaws last year. For Stroud, it was how he played under pressure. The second-year passer was pressured on 38 percent of his dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in the league, and his pressures turned into sacks at the 12th-highest rate. Neither mark was horrific in its own right, but the combo of seeing a lot of pressure and struggling under pressure put the offense in a bind. Stroud’s pressure rate and pressure-to-sack rate are both up slightly this year. He Pro Football Focus has him graded as their No. 26 passer under pressure.
Williams was also a sack-taker last year, but what was even more concerning was the weekly cascade of errant throws. PFF charted him with an accuracy rate of 54.3 percent as a rookie, sandwiching him between Spencer Rattler and Tyler Huntley in that metric. His accuracy rate is down to 47.6 percent this year. He ranks 33rd out of 34 qualified passers. Situation and coaching matter an immeasurable amount for quarterbacks, but most passers also have stripes that will take years to change, if they even manage to do so at all.
The Vikings lost J.J. McCarthy to an ankle injury in Week 2. He could be sidelined for up to a month, meaning we might be blessed with four Carson Wentz starts. It sounds gross, but this could be a boon for Minnesota pass-catchers. McCarthy currently ranks dead last in EPA per play and second-to-last in completion percent over expected.
Wentz has starts for the Chiefs and Rams over the past two years. Wentz ranks 25th in EPA per play and 19th in CPOE among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks since 2023. Kevin O’Connell has also called a far more conservative offense with McCarthy under center than in any of his previous three seasons as the Vikings’ head coach. He had a +3% pass rate over expected from 2022 to 2024. That is down to -2% percent this season.
Don’t look now, but the Patriots’ signal-caller is making the leap in year two. Maye is sitting at exactly eighth among qualified passers in a heap of key metrics:
It’s been hard to capitalize on Maye’s ascendance because they don’t have a clear No. 1 receiver. That player was Kayshon Boutte with a 19 percent target share and 83 percent route rate in Week 1. Boutte’s routes dipped slightly in Week 2 and his target total plummeted to one, though he did manage to get into the end zone. The hope for fantasy managers is that the Pats will find a full-time role for Stefon Diggs or rookie Kyle Williams at some point, creating a breakout bet for the second half of the season.
After looking like the worst team in football in Week 1, the Dolphins started to get things on track versus the Patriots in Week 2. Tua Tagovailoa finally made the spreadsheets go brr by posting the second-best mark in CPOE and the No. 11 mark in EPA per play. Tua looked far better on deep and intermediate throws. He went 3-of-8 for 51 yards and two interceptions on throws beyond 10 yards downfield in the Dolphins’ opener. That jumped to 6-of-9 for 139 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Week 2. Most importantly, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were each targeted three times on throws 20+ yards downfield. Both wideouts came down with two deep receptions. Hill caught one deep pass in Week 1 and Waddle failed to earn even a single deep target. The Dolphins have to find ways to get their star receiving duo open downfield if they want to revive the careers of Tua and Mike McDaniel. Week 2 was a step in the right direction.
This time it counts for the former Buckeye and first-round pick. Per usual, Olave is a volume-earning phenom. His 23 targets are the third-most for a receiver through two games. He also ranks top-10 in air yards and end zone targets. PFF and RotoViz have him in the top six in expected fantasy points. Both measures also have him with the third-worst mark in fantasy points over expected. Part of this comes down to catching passes from Spencer Rattler. We shouldn’t expect Rattler to efficiently convert volume into fantasy points. But Rattler hasn’t been putrid this year. He currently sits at 24th in EPA per play, 20th in CPOE, and 11th in PFF passing grade. Olave is a screaming buy-low candidate.
The Chiefs look dreadful on offense right now. They currently rank 14th in EPA per dropback and 27th in EPA per rush attempt. Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a regular season game in almost two years. Every other team in the league has a 31-point game more recently. This might not matter for fantasy managers who drafted Patrick Mahomes. My GOAT has three career regular-season games with at least 50 rushing yards and a touchdown. He first accomplished this in 2022. The other two times were in Week 1 and Week 2 of the 2025 season. Mahomes leads the league with 13 scrambles. He has nine carries on non-pressured dropbacks. That leads the league with a three-carry gap between him and the No. 2 passer. Mahomes is trying to put the team on his back via his legs, much like he does in the playoffs. Even if the passing output doesn’t recover, he is papering over that with an uptick in rushing production.
Returning to the fantasy points over expectation metric I mentioned earlier, no receiver has left more points on the field than Brian Thomas Jr. The second-year wideout has five catches for 60 yards on 19 targets.
Brian Thomas' opportunity has been excellent through two weeks, 9th-best in entire NFL.
Not sure I've ever seen someone underperform their targets/touches so drastically. pic.twitter.com/Oz2JFQ4bk0
Travis Hunter isn’t far behind with 55 yards on 14 targets. The Jags currently rank fourth in EPA per play when a running back is the intended target. They are one of just three teams with multiple receiving touchdowns in their backfield. They are a pitiful 29th in EPA per play when throwing to wideouts. PFF has the Jags’ pass-catchers credited with nine drops. That is both the most total drops for a team and the highest drop rate.
BTJ is apparently dealing with an unreported wrist injury that could have been causing him more trouble than we realized in Week 2. Hunter hasn’t been a difference-maker on offense yet and BTJ has taken a step back through two games. The Jags are doomed if these things don’t change.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. struggled across the board in Week 1, and then publicly criticized the coaching staff’s decision-making at the goal line.
This is quite the quote from Tyrone Tracy ..
Players questioning play calling after one game?
“I have to do what’s called, but I definitely said we needed to run the ball on the 1-yard line. I feel like everyone felt the same — whether it’s offensive line, quarterback, running… https://t.co/YPV4UMqeGI
The Giants started Devin Singletary over him. Singletary got the first carry of the day and then gave way to rookie Cam Skattebo. Singletary didn’t touch the ball again on the ground and Tracy was the third back to see the ball, paving the way for a Skattebo takeover. Skattebo logged a 51 percent snap share and ran a route on 42 percent of the team’s dropbacks. He turned his 11 carries into 45 yards and a score. Skattebo has forced three missed tackles to Tracy’s one and has the Giants’ only carry of 15+ yards. Expect him to ice Tracy out of the rotation at some point this year.
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