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Lockridge Okoth
A fierce debate has broken out among macro analysts over the credibility of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Experts say this key economic metric is being overused to predict business cycles and Bitcoin market tops.
The clash highlights a growing divide between traditional economic modeling and modern financial conditions-driven analysis, with ripple effects reaching deep into crypto market forecasting.
CFA Julien Bittel, a macro strategist at Global Macro Investor (GMI), dismisses many of Wall Street’s go-to indicators as outdated or misinterpreted.
“Delinquency rates, ISM, PMIs, job openings, retail sales — none of these are leading indicators…Everything is downstream to changes in financial conditions,” Bittel wrote.
Bittel explained that GMI’s proprietary US Coincident Business Cycle Index integrates forward-moving elements within the data, including early employment signals, and that it began turning higher in mid-2022, months before ISM and other metrics rebounded.
According to Bittel, the labor market’s gradual cooling is actually a positive sign, paving the way for lower rates and renewed economic expansion.
However, macro strategist Henrik Zeberg presents a contrary opinion, calling for caution around treating survey-based indicators as reality.
“ISM is NOT the business cycle or the economy. It is a damn survey! In July 2022, many called for a recession based on the same GMI score. We did not see one. Maybe the score needs calibration?” Zeberg wrote.
Their public disagreement births a wider discussion about how much weight the ISM PMI still deserves. The index measures US manufacturing activity and has remained below the neutral 50 mark for more than seven months, signaling contraction. However, it has not coincided with a full-blown recession.
Historically, the ISM’s moves have also correlated with major Bitcoin cycle tops, a connection first popularized by macro investor Raoul Pal.
NEW: Raoul Pal believes Bitcoin is now following a five-year market cycle, due to an extended debt maturity period and its close correlation with the ISM manufacturing index. 🤔

Using an ISM-Bitcoin chart and a 5.4-year SIN curve, Pal predicts Bitcoin will likely peak around Q2… pic.twitter.com/R2YwNOxLXx
That correlation has now captured the attention of the crypto community. Analysts like Colin Talks Crypto and Lark Davis argue that the ISM’s prolonged stagnation could mean Bitcoin’s bull market will stretch far beyond its typical four-year rhythm.
“All three past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this index,” Colin noted.
The analyst suggested that a cycle top could be mid-2026 for the Bitcoin price if the relationship holds. Entrepreneur and Bitcoin investor Davis agreed, noting that while everyone expects a Q4 2025 peak, the ISM has not shown real expansion yet, meaning this cycle could go way deeper into 2026.
Everyone's expecting this cycle to peak in Q4 this year.

But I think we're going way deeper into 2026.

Here's why:

The classic 4-year business cycle usually have 2 years of expansion and 2 years contraction.

That should’ve lined up with a Q4 2025 top.

But this time, the ISM… pic.twitter.com/yoCVd6r7LZ
A weaker ISM often implies delayed economic recovery and longer market expansions. Despite current headwinds from tariffs to sluggish global demand, the extended contraction phase may lengthen the broader business cycle rather than end it.
While this could translate to a more gradual, durable uptrend for the Bitcoin price, it warns against expecting an early peak as the 2025–2026 cycle debate shapes into a consequential narrative linking traditional economics and digital assets.
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1 Important Tailwind That Could Send Dogecoin Skyrocketing  Yahoo Finance
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Are you looking to win big? The DC Lottery offers several games to choose from if you think it’s your lucky day.
You can choose from national lottery games, like the Powerball and Mega Millions, or a variety of local games, like the DC 2, DC 3, DC 4 and DC 5.
While your odds of winning a big jackpot in the Powerball or Mega Millions are generally pretty slim (here’s how they compare to being struck by lightning or dealt a royal flush), other games offer better odds to win cash, albeit with lower prize amounts.
Here’s a look at Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025 results for each game:
02-12-22-39-67, Powerball: 15, Power Play: 2
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21-32-34-35-44, Lucky Ball: 05
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             <span>© 2025 Coinspeaker LTD.</span>                 <span>ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.</span>             <br>Bitcoin price rebounded to $113,800 on Sunday, gaining 10% as investors shifted capital from Gold to DeFi-based BTC exposure.<br>Bitcoin price opened trading at $111,200 on Sunday, October before moving up 2% to hit $113,800. Since Gold’s historic price discovery phase paused at $4,380 on October 18, Bitcoin-Defi protocols have seen $400 million in fresh TVL deposits. Increased long-term exposure to BTC suggests investors are now rotating towards yield-bearing BTC positions.<br>Bitcoin recovered to 10-day peaks near $114,000 on Sunday, as President Trump <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ustr-greer-says-trade-talks-with-china-moving-toward-agreement-leaders-review-2025-10-26/">prepares to meet</a> China’s Xi Jinping in Korea to discuss trade relations. The meeting is scheduled as the climax to Trump’s week-long visit to Asia, which included stops in Japan and Malaysia, where he oversaw peace pact signing between Cambodia and Thailand, stirring optimism across global markets over the weekend.<!----> <!-- Google adSense --> <!--<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4826868851612784"      crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle"      style="display:block; text-align:center;margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:5px"      data-ad-layout="in-article"      data-ad-format="fluid"      data-ad-client="ca-pub-4826868851612784"      data-ad-slot="2123345046"></ins> <script>
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In the past ten days, Bitcoin has clawed back nearly 10% of its mid-October losses, rising from $103,500 on October 17 to $113,800 at press time on Sunday, October 26.
Meanwhile, Gold, which hit a record high of $4,381 per ounce on October 18, has experienced a 6% decline from its peak, trading at $4,103 at press time.
Bitcoin price action and correlation to Gold (XAU), October 26, 2025 | Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s weekend recovery follows a period of intense volatility in mid-October. The crypto market was rattled by President Trump’s now-deferred tariff call on China on October 10 and the prolonged U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1.
Together, these events triggered a sharp capital flight toward traditional safe-haven assets, leading to a $19.4 billion liquidation wave in cryptocurrency derivatives markets — the largest single-day blowout on record.
Between October 10 and October 17, Bitcoin fell 16% from $123,800 to lows of $103,500, while Gold rallied 12% from $3,900 to $4,381 per ounce. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold sank to -0.84, its lowest level since February 2025, when tensions surrounding Trump’s tariffs on its North American neighbors, Mexico and Canada, disrupted global market stability.
Since Gold’s record-breaking rally stalled on October 17, investors have begun reallocating capital toward Bitcoin and other yield-generating digital assets. On-chain data shows that the total value of Bitcoin locked (TVL) in decentralized finance protocols climbed from $7.8 billion to $8.2 billion between October 17 and October 26,  an increase of roughly $400 million in ten days.
Bitcoin TVL rises $400 million from $7.8 billion to $8.2 billion between Oct 17 – Oct 26 | Source: Artemis
When investors move BTC into staking and lending protocols to capture on-chain yields, it signals renewed long-term confidence in Bitcoin, particularly as Gold’s rally shows signs of exhaustion.
LYN ALDEN: "Bitcoin is gold combined with a tech stock." pic.twitter.com/fF7zEYmgN8
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 25, 2025

Meanwhile, prominent macro analyst Lyn Alden played down the influence on Gold on Bitcoin’s near-term price outlook, during an interview with Youtuber David Lin. When quizzed on both assets’ prospects, Alden noted that Bitcoin is now competing more directly with equities than with Gold
Alden added that Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted yield potential and its adjacency to tech make it more attractive to portfolio managers than static hedging instruments like Gold.
Looking ahead, global markets remain tense as the U.S. government shutdown enters its fourth week with little political resolution in sight. Investor sentiment is likely to hinge on two key events this week: the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on October 29 and the Trump–Xi Jinping summit scheduled for October 30.
US Fed Rate probabilities for October 29, FOMC meeting | Source: CME Fedwatch
Investors are currently pricing in a 96.2% chance of another rate cut of 375 to 400 basis points, according to CME FedWatch.
If the talks yield positive trade signals or the Fed’s decision leans dovish as widely expected, Bitcoin could extend its upward trajectory toward the $115,000 to $118,000 range. However, renewed geopolitical friction or hawkish monetary tightening could trigger a near-term pullback toward $109,000 support.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Ibrahim Ajibade is a seasoned research analyst with a background in supporting various Web3 startups and financial organizations. He earned his undergraduate degree in Economics and is currently studying for a Master’s in Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies at the University of Malta.
Ibrahim Ajibade on LinkedIn
October 26th, 2025
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This website provides educational content only. Cryptocurrency and investing involve significant risk, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and always do your own research or seek professional advice.
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XRP Crypto Reclaims #3 Spot, Overtakes BNB: Institutional XRP News on Verge of Going Parabolic  99Bitcoins
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Wall Street is discreetly gearing up for a significant alteration in the Federal Reserve’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, coinciding with a sudden rise in Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) price.
According to a report, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from a recent “flash crash,” soaring nearly 10% and surpassing $111,000.
This development occurs as the Wall Street heavyweights prepare for the Federal Reserve to halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet, a process known as quantitative tightening, reports Forbes.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives pioneer BitMex, foresees a spike in money printing from the United States starting next year. He has predicted that it will trigger an increase in asset appreciation, with Bitcoin potentially hitting a $1 million price.
Launched in 2022, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program has trimmed its balance sheet from around $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, draining liquidity from the financial system and putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Also Read: Elon Musk’s SpaceX Shakes Up Bitcoin Market With $133 Million Transfer
Analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America anticipate the Fed will stop the contraction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month. This action is projected to stimulate risk assets like Bitcoin as cash circulates more freely, reports the outlet.
Over the past year, Bitcoin’s price has mirrored gold’s rally, with traders gravitating towards hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin as safeguards against money printing and inflation that erode the dollar’s purchasing power.
The anticipated halt in the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening could have significant implications for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
If the Fed ceases to reduce its balance sheet, it could lead to an increase in liquidity and stimulate the appreciation of these assets. Furthermore, the potential surge in money printing predicted by Arthur Hayes could further boost Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching unprecedented levels.
This comes as traders increasingly turn to hard assets as a hedge against inflation and the diminishing purchasing power of the dollar.
Read Next
Bitcoin’s Odds Of Dipping Below $100,000 This Month Stand At 52%, Says Polymarket
Image: Shutterstock/Peshkova
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
A newsletter built for market enthusiasts by market enthusiasts. Top stories, top movers, and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every weekday before and after the market closes.

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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Investors Stake $400M on BTC as Trump Meets China’s Xi in Korea  Yahoo Finance
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NYJets.com Contributor
Nick Mangold, the Jets’ celebrated center and one of the all-time greats to wear the Green & White during and after his playing career, passed away from complications of kidney disease Saturday night. He was 41.
“Nick was more than a legendary center,” said Jets Chairman Woody Johnson. “He was the heartbeat of our offensive line for a decade and a beloved teammate whose leadership and toughness defined an era of Jets football. Off the field, Nick’s wit, warmth, and unwavering loyalty made him a cherished member of our extended Jets family.”
Mangold recently posted a letter on social media that detailed his battle with kidney disease that, “atter a rough summer,” required him to undergo dialysis treatments.
“In 2006, I was diagnosed with a genetic defect that has led to chronic kidney disease,” Mangold wrote in his letter addressed to “My NY Jets community.” “I’m undergoing dialysis as we look for a kidney transplant. I always knew this day would come, but I thought I would have more time.”
Mangold expressed his gratitude for his family, “who have been my rock every step of the way. This situation has reminded me how lucky I am to have such an amazing family, friends, and community behind me.”
Today all of those communities Mangold addressed are mourning his passing and remembering No. 74’s legacy as a Jets Legend.
“Nick was the embodiment of consistency, strength, and leadership,” said Jets Vice Chairman Christopher Johnson. “For over a decade, he anchored our offensive line with unmatched skill and determination, earning the respect of teammates, opponents, and fans alike. His contributions on the field were extraordinary — but it was his character, humility, and humor off the field that made him unforgettable.”
Mangold began to bond with the Green & White family as soon as he arrived as the 29th selection of the first round of the 2006 draft out of Ohio State. Combining forces with LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, the fourth selection of that draft, Mangold led the transformation of the Jets’ O-line into a stable platform that helped produce three playoff teams, including two AFC Championship Game units, and four winning teams from 2006-10.
“A big part of our lives were spent on that field,” Ferguson said today. “Then very early on I was at his wedding, there were so many times where we shared life tgoether, family events. I do appreciate having had the opportunity to do life with him, and not only him but his family, everyone else on that stage. … It’s a hard time.”
Being the rock in the middle of the line was more than just a saying. Mangold stepped into the pivot from day one in ’06 and snapped the ball to every Jets quarterback until late in the 2016 season. He started and played in every Jets game from ’06 until early in 2011, 89 games including seven playoff games, until a high ankle sprain sustained early that season against Jacksonville sidelined him for the first time as a pro.
Two games later, he returned to the lineup to start the next 59 games before missing another. In all he started 171 games for the Jets, including those seven postseason contests.
Mangold was named first-team All-Pro after his 2009 and ’10 seasons, second-team All-Pro in ’11, and was voted to the AFC Pro Bowl rosters after the 2008-11 and ’13-15 seasons. His seven Pro Bowl selections are one shy of the franchise record held by Pro Football Hall of Fame tackle Winston Hill, Mangold’s Ring of Honor teammate.
Mangold’s induction announcement into the team’s Ring of Honor was made June 2, 2022, simultaneously with the announcements of the inductions of Ferguson and CB Darrelle Revis into the Ring. Mangold was honored at his own MetLife Stadium halftime ceremony during Game 3 against Cincinnati on Sept. 25, 2022.
Last week, Mangold was among the 52 Modern-Era players who cleared the second hurdle toward becoming a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2026. In about five weeks, that list will be reduced to 25 semifinalists, then to 20 finalists, then to the Hall’s four to eight newest members, which will be announced the day before Super Bowl LX.
Ever since his retirement following the 2016 season, Nick and his famous beard, flowing blond locks and uniform number 74 that he made famous as a Jets player were seen at any number of team and fan events.
Mangold, a Centerville, Ohio, native, started his Jets journey with the club on Long Island two decades ago, transitioned with the team to New Jersey in 2008 and planted his family’s flag down the street.
“Being able to finish out my career here, being able to play for only one team is something really special to me,” Mangold said last November. “It’s a great team to be a part of. This fan base is as passionate as they come, loyal as all get-out.”
He was a mainstay on the Jets scene for the past two decades and members of his family and the Green & White community he spoke so fondly of today are mourning the loss of one of the best centers and players and ambassadors in franchise history.
“On behalf of the entire Johnson family and the New York Jets organization, we offer our sincere condolences to Jenny, their four children — Matthew, Eloise, Thomas, and Charlotte — as well as to Nick’s extended family, friends, and all who loved him,” said Woody Johnson.
“Nick Mangold will forever be a Jet.”
Jets Legend Passed Away Due to Complications from Kidney Disease
Kene Nwangwu, Jay Tufele, Stone Smartt & Kobe King Also Deactivated for Game 8 vs. Bengals
With Either Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor Under Center, Offense’s Focus Will Be Finishing
The Jets’ Young Tackles Against Bengals Pass Rusher Trey Hendrickson is a Battle to Watch For
QB Justin Fields Will Make Seventh Start for Green & White
HC Aaron Glenn Doesn’t Name a QB Starter; CB Azareye’h Thomas Moves Into a Starting Role
Broadcast and Stream Info for Sunday’s Game in Cincinnati
Green & White Place WR Josh Reynolds and LB Cam Jones on IR; Elevate QB Brady Cook and DL Payton Page
DL Jowon Briggs ‘Progressing Well’ Ahead of Return to Hometown; Bengals QB Joe Flacco Set to Encounter Familiar Faces 
Sixth-Round Draft Pick Appeared in 5 Games for Minnesota Vikings 
Breece Hall (Knee) & Mason Taylor (Quad) Questionable for Week 8
COPYRIGHT © 2025 NEW YORK JETS

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2025’s 7 Leading Bitcoin & Dogecoin Cloud Mining Platforms — Smart Passive Income  NFT Plazas
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