October is shaping up as one of Bitcoin’s weakest in years, threatening the cryptocurrency’s reputation for strong autumn rallies. After an early surge to new highs, BTCUSD has struggled, retreating to a range between $105,825 and $115,403. If current trends persist, Bitcoin could post its first negative October since 2018.
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Early Gains Fade, Market Shows Strain
Bitcoin’s historically bullish October, dubbed “Uptober” by traders, has seen its momentum stall. Data from CoinGlass shows BTC is currently 2.77% below its monthly opening price, with only a 4% decline needed to cement its worst performance in more than a decade. By comparison, September saw a more than 5.16% increase.
In the past five years, 2021 recorded the strongest monthly returns for October at 39% amid a booming market when prices surged to nearly $70K. However, in 2022, the returns increased by 5%. In 2023 and 2024, the returns were 28% and 10%, respectively. This year, May had the strongest monthly return at 11%.
“The bulk of October’s upside tends to occur in the second half of the month,” said network economist Timothy Peterson. He added that a potential end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening at its Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets.
Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/jklTYLaDcW
Several factors have muted the usual October rally. Tensions over U.S.–China tariffs, low liquidity, and a series of leveraged liquidations have capped gains.
Bitcoin’s drop below $107,000 last week reportedly triggered $1.2 billion in liquidations, erasing long positions built after September’s rebound. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB each fell 3%–8% in the same period, while smaller tokens like DOGE and ADA have seen declines exceeding 20%.
Bitcoin Daily Price, Source: TradingView
Market Sentiment and Predictions
Crypto traders remain cautiously optimistic. Markets such as Myriad show a swing back toward bullish predictions, with odds favoring Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before dropping to $100,000. Ethereum is also expected to rebound toward $4,700. Despite the downturn, the possibility of a late-month recovery keeps traders attentive.
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“Uptober may not live up to its name this year, but history shows the month can still surprise,” Peterson noted. With two weeks remaining, the final outcome for Bitcoin in October remains open, balancing between seasonal expectations and macroeconomic headwinds.
From another fundamental perspective: historically, Bitcoin’s price rallies followed halving events, which cut block rewards in half and created sharp supply shocks that fueled bull markets, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
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Bullish 🚀 pic.twitter.com/dHv2K36teo
However, the current cycle has unfolded differently: after the most recent halving, Bitcoin spent five months in sideways consolidation rather than seeing an immediate post-halving surge. While prices have since gained momentum, questions have been raised about whether the halving still drives market cycles as it once did.
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The current cycle has also already exceeded the duration from cycle low to cycle high, as seen in prior bull markets. The 2018–2022 cycle peaked 1,059 days after its bear market low, and Bitcoin has now surpassed that timeframe, approaching the length of the 2017 cycle.
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