Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) has staged a violent rebound to $2.48, erasing nearly half of a brutal 42% plunge that sent the token to $1.15, its deepest intraday low since 2021. The move unfolded as $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated globally, creating a cascade that wiped out more than $150 million in XRP longs and triggered forced selling across derivatives markets. Intraday volatility exceeded 43%, while total trading volume exploded 357% to $21.5 billion, confirming that panic liquidation rather than organic selling drove the collapse. XRP opened the session near $2.82, crashed through key support at $2.70 and $2.50, and finally stabilized above $2.35, where whale bids began to absorb supply.
On-chain data show that whales accumulated aggressively during the capitulation. Wallets holding over one billion tokens added 1.04 billion XRP, lifting their collective balance from 23.98 billion to 25.02 billion, equal to roughly $2.54 billion at current prices. Exchange reserves remained steady through the event, proving that the drop originated in futures liquidations rather than spot selling. This pattern mirrors the 2017 and 2020 washouts that marked long-term bottoms before multi-month rallies, suggesting that the current collapse may represent a structural reset rather than trend exhaustion.
According to Coinglass data, 58% of active bullish leverage—about $55 million in long contracts—sits just below $2.70. Bulls continue to defend this level as the main pivot. When XRP fell beneath it, open interest dropped from $9.0 billion to $8.85 billion, illustrating how quickly excess leverage cleared out of the system. RSI readings near 41 point to near-oversold conditions, and Bollinger Bands remain compressed, signaling volatility buildup for a potential upside break. The developing double-bottom formation between $2.60 and $2.80, with a neckline at $3.10, will determine whether momentum flips back toward $3.60 targets.
Quantitative AI models now project that XRP could finish 2025 between $3.10 and $3.20 under moderate macro conditions. The bullish scenario—anchored on approval of a U.S.-listed XRP ETF and renewed institutional flows—sees upside toward $4.50 or higher as as much as $3–$10 billion of fresh capital enters the ecosystem. Delays or denials of the ETF could restrain prices near $2.00–$2.20, while a combination of ETF approval and a fourth-quarter crypto rally could extend the pair well beyond the $4.00 zone.
The U.S. government shutdown has temporarily stalled multiple ETF filings, including Ripple-linked products expected for mid-October review. Despite procedural delays, institutional managers anticipate clearance in early 2025, which could act as a structural liquidity trigger for XRP markets. Meanwhile, Ripple’s expansion of cross-border settlement partnerships in Europe and Asia continues to anchor real-world demand, reinforcing its position as the blockchain layer bridging traditional finance and on-chain payment rails.
The price map now shows primary support at $2.30–$2.35 and a secondary floor near $2.10. A sustained break below $2.20 could open a slide toward $1.80, whereas a daily close above $2.80–$2.90 restores bullish structure. The true confirmation level remains $3.10; clearing it validates the double-bottom pattern and exposes the $3.60–$4.00 zone. Moving averages remain constructive: the 50-day EMA near $2.55 aligns with intraday support, and the 200-day near $2.10 defines the macro floor.
Santiment analytics confirm that exchange balances barely moved during the crash, meaning long-term holders did not participate in the sell-off. Transaction counts and wallet activity remained stable, implying that the network’s fundamental usage stayed intact even as speculative positions unwound. Historically, such divergence between stable on-chain data and collapsing futures metrics precedes a trend reversal.
During the same 24-hour window, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rebounded from $103 K to $111 K (–5.9%), and Ethereum (ETH-USD) recovered to $3,849 (–6.7%). In contrast, XRP finished the session up roughly 4% from its panic low, outperforming most major altcoins. Solana (SOL-USD) fell 12.8%, Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) slumped 18.7%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) lost 16.5%, confirming XRP’s relative strength after the deleveraging phase.
The latest capitulation wick ranks as the second-longest in XRP’s trading history, second only to 2017’s pre-rally event that triggered a 1,500% advance within six months. Technical analysts describe the current setup as an “echo pattern,” where extreme liquidation cleanses leverage and resets sentiment before a new accumulation cycle begins. The $2.40–$2.50 zone has already attracted multiple defensive bids, establishing the foundation for potential re-acceleration toward $3.00.
Ripple’s pursuit of National Trust charter recognition and the push for a spot XRP ETF continue to shape institutional narratives. Major asset managers have pre-filed interest to allocate once regulatory clarity emerges. If the ETF receives approval in 2025, it could channel billions of dollars in fresh inflows and solidify XRP’s status as a bridge asset for banks and payment providers.
After reviewing the entire flow—$19 billion global liquidation, $150 million XRP futures wipeout, $2.5 billion whale accumulation, and stable spot supply—the evidence supports a high-conviction rebound thesis. Key levels to monitor: support $2.35, pivot $2.70, breakout $3.10, targets $3.60–$4.50. Risk remains high, but structural upside outweighs downside given whale positioning, derivative reset, and institutional catalysts. Based on quantitative and on-chain data, Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) is rated BUY, with long-term accumulation favored below $2.50 ahead of a potentially transformative 2025.
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