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XRP faces a pivotal moment as technical analysis and on-chain data point to major price movement ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified a descending triangle formation that could send the token down 20% if key support breaks.
The current price sits near $2.85, with the critical $2.68 support level acting as a make-or-break point. Brandt’s analysis shows a series of lower highs converging on this support zone, creating the classic descending triangle pattern.
On the left is a classic descending triangle from Edwards and Magee, showing what descending triangles are supposed to do. On the right is a developing descending triangle. ONLY IF it closes below 2.68743 (then I'll be a hater), then it should drop to 2.22163. $XRP pic.twitter.com/3GI7nT1TaW
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 7, 2025
A weekly close below $2.68743 would activate a downside target of $2.22163. This represents an 18% drop from current levels and would confirm the bearish technical setup.
The chart also displays bearish RSI divergence on the weekly timeframe. This momentum indicator suggests weakening buying pressure despite price holding relatively steady.
On-chain metrics reinforce the bearish technical picture. Wallets containing between 1 million and 10 million XRP have offloaded approximately 440 million tokens over the past month.
440 million $XRP sold by whales in the last 30 days! pic.twitter.com/qIQ9I2fYML
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 8, 2025
Whale balances in this category declined from about 6.9 billion XRP down to roughly 6.5 billion. This distribution phase coincides with XRP’s inability to break above the $2.85-$2.90 resistance zone.
Glassnode data shows over 320 million XRP moved to exchanges during the past week. These inflows pushed exchange reserves toward nine-month highs, typically a signal of impending selling pressure.
When major holders reduce positions and retail demand fails to absorb the supply, downward price pressure usually follows. The synchronized timing of whale selling and stagnant price action creates a challenging outlook.
XRP currently maintains a market cap around $177 billion, placing it just below BNB at approximately $178 billion in cryptocurrency rankings.
Santiment reports XRP’s crowd FUD metric reached its highest reading in six months. Extreme fear and uncertainty among market participants has historically served as a contrarian indicator at local bottoms.
However, not all analysts share the bearish perspective. Crypto trader CasiTrades observes that XRP has consolidated near $3.00 for multiple days, forming a potential base.
She suggests a confirmed breakout could propel XRP toward the $4.00-$4.50 range. Analyst Ali Martinez points to $3.15 as a key resistance level, with a clean break potentially driving price to $3.60.
These bullish scenarios would require XRP to hold above $2.68 support and break through overhead resistance. The competing views create a clear binary setup for traders.
The market now focuses on two decisive price levels. A break below $2.68 validates the descending triangle and opens the path to $2.22.
A move above $3.15 invalidates the bearish pattern and shifts attention to higher targets between $4.00 and $4.50.
Multiple factors may explain recent whale distribution. Some holders are likely taking profits after earlier price gains. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty around XRP continues to create hesitation among institutional players.
Capital rotation into other cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin could also drive the selling. If distribution continues, XRP risks breaking below $2.80, which could accelerate momentum toward the $2.68 support test.
Trader CasiTrades summarizes the current situation: the market “awaits a decisive move, either above $3.15 or below $2.68743.” A weekly close below $2.687 would confirm Brandt’s bearish target.
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