
Bitcoin ETFs attract approximately $10 billion in investments each quarter, leading to a shortage of available shares? 富途牛牛
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Key Points
There are a couple of powerful drivers that could push Bitcoin's run even further.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC 0.36%) has been grinding higher again, with its price briefly surpassing its all-time high and reaching more than $126,000 on Oct. 6, continuing a run of 30% this year so far. It’s once again flirting with fresh record prices and reigniting one question in particular on many investors’ minds.
Can it clear $130,000 before 2026?
Image source: Getty Images.
After such a good year, it’s natural for investors to wonder if there’s much gas left in the tank with this asset. And there is — potentially quite a lot, in fact.
We’re now more than a year and a half out from the most recent halving in April 2024, when Bitcoin’s new daily issuance from mining fell to roughly 450 new coins per day, down from about 900 before that. As a reminder, the coin’s maximum supply is still 21 million, and the overwhelming majority of that sum is already in circulation. So as long as there are people trying to buy Bitcoin, they will be competing with each other in the form of bidding for higher prices to secure some of the supply, and they will never see more coming onto the market each day than they do right now.
On the demand side, the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market has become a meaningful new buyer that’s also driving prices higher. In the week ended Oct. 4, global crypto ETFs took in a record $5.9 billion, led by U.S. ETF products, as Bitcoin reached new highs. There have also been sustained positive net inflows over time, which is a clear sign that adoption among financial institutions is broadening.
If you put those pieces together, a push to $130,000 is a relatively small step from the coin’s recent record. It would be only a few percentage points above the latest highs, well within the band of normal month-to-month variation during strong uptrends. So it’s probably inevitable.
Of course, if the macroeconomic picture degrades suddenly, all bets are off, but that’s always the case. The key is that today’s setup still skews outcomes upward so long as buyers keep showing up. And for one big reason in particular that we’re about to get into, the probability of buyers continuing to demand Bitcoin is very, very high.
The most interesting driver of Bitcoin right now is macro.
As you may have heard, the dollar debasement trade is the idea that investors tilt toward scarce, non-fiat currency assets when they fear a decline in a currency’s purchasing power or worry about long-run fiscal sustainability. Both of those fears are alive and well with regard to the U.S. dollar at the moment.
There is ample data to justify the concern. The purchasing power of the U.S. consumer dollar has trended lower for decades, reflecting cumulative inflation; the recent surge in inflation since 2022 has aggravated the trend. Meanwhile, official projections show persistent and large deficits and rising federal debt over the coming decade, which can amplify worries about future inflation or currency weakness.
In that environment, assets with credibly scarce supply tend to look attractive. Gold’s bid in 2025 is one example, as it’s performing better than it has in decades. Bitcoin’s fixed cap and halving schedule give it similar scarcity characteristics, but with global portability.
If the debasement narrative persists and ETF channels continue to funnel capital into Bitcoin, new highs are extremely likely and reaching $130,000 before 2026 is very plausible, and perhaps far too conservative a price target. So what are investors going to do about it?
Consider dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin to avoid anchoring to any single price print, and give the scarcity investment thesis a few years to play out rather than weeks. If the debasement trends endure and ETF demand keeps absorbing coins, the market will blow through $130,000 quite soon.
Alex Carchidi is a contributing Motley Fool healthcare and cryptocurrency analyst covering biotech, pharma, cannabis, and digital asset companies. Previously, Alex was a bench scientist and science writer at several biopharma companies and began his career as a researcher at the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard. He holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from Boston University and a master’s degree in business administration with a concentration in finance from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child….
Bullish view
Bearish view

Bitcoin price held steady above the important support level at $120,000, down from the year-to-date high of 126,260. BTC/USD remains about 13% above the lowest point in October this year.
Bitcoin has been in a relentless bull run this year as investors continued accumulating its exchange-traded funds (ETF). Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that the cumulative net inflows into ETFs have jumped by over $2 billion this week.
This increase has brought the netflow to over $62 billion, bringing the total amount held by these funds to over $164 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT is nearing the $100 billion asset level, while other funds by companies like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Ark Invest have had robust inflows in the past few months.
Investors have turned to Bitcoin because it has solidified its role as an important safe-haven asset. Its performance has also mirrored the performance of gold, which has now jumped to over $4,000 this year. Gold has jumped by over 50% this year.
The main market risk recently has been the US government shutdown, which is now in its second week. This shutdown has led to a data drought as the main statistics agency have remained shut.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not publish its jobs numbers on Friday. If it continues, it means that the agency will not release the latest consumer inflation data next week. That my push the Fed to deliver its interest rate decision blindly later this month.
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair soared to a record high this week and then pulled back to the current 123,350. It remains below the important support level at 124,513, the highest swing on August 14.
The pair remains above all moving averages and slightly below the ultimate resistance level at 125,000. Also, the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have all pointed upwards.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the ultimate resistance followed by the overshoot point at 128,125. A drop below the support at 120,000 will invalidate the bullish forecast.
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