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Arsenal host Tottenham Hotspur in the first north London derby of the season at the Emirates today.
Mikel Arteta's men top the Premier League table and can extend their lead over second-placed Chelsea to six points.
Tottenham start the day in eighth after yesterday's results pushed them out of the European places.
The Athletic's live schedule for the week
GO FURTHER
Arsenal may be winning on the pitch, but Spurs are way ahead in the battle of stadiums
Tottenham have a historically dismal record in this fixture, not having won at the Emirates in the league since 2010. Better Spurs teams than this one have gone to Arsenal and come back with nothing.
While Spurs’ results this season have been pretty good, the performances have been unconvincing.
Perhaps the only cause for optimism is that all of Spurs’ best league displays have all come away from home, when there is no onus on them to dominate possession, and their reactive game can flourish.
I’m fairly confident that Arsenal will come away as winners.
Part of that comes from Arsenal winning five of the last six games between the sides and not losing against Spurs in three years — their last loss coming at the end of the 2021-22 season in a 3-0 away defeat.
Sunderland shocked Arsenal with two goals before the international break. Despite missing Gabriel for this match and beyond, their collective defensive solidity has been exceptional this season — particularly at home.
They have conceded just one goal at the Emirates all season, Erling Haaland’s strike in September.
Cristhian Mosquera has stepped up when needed, but this is a chance for Piero Hincapie to make a true introduction in place of Gabriel.
Spurs come into today's derby with an away record to be envied as they remain unbeaten through five Premier League matches.
Could they use it to upset Arsenal’s dominance in this fixture in recent meetings?
Thomas Frank’s side have enjoyed themselves on the road with the joint-most points (13) and the second-most goals scored (12, two behind Chelsea who have played an extra game).
They have only conceded three goals, which is the fewest of any team away from home, too.
At least, if recent history is to be taken into account when these sides play each other.
Arsenal have been dominant in recent years, with just one defeat in their last 32 Premier League home games against Tottenham (they have won 19 and drawn 12).
Spurs’ poor north London derby record isn't exclusive to their visits to the Emirates Stadium — including home games too, they have lost seven of their last nine matches against Arsenal.
Per Opta, that’s as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 25 derbies.
Only five Premier League clubs have conceded a higher expected-goals figure than Tottenham this season, yet only three have let in fewer actual goals. Much of that discrepancy is down to goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario.
After an injury-hit 2024-25 season, Italian international Vicario, 29, has been one of the league’s most effective shot-stoppers in the early months of this one, relative to the chances he faces.
His +0.34 post-shot xG saved per 90 minutes puts him on course to prevent around 12 goals this season. So far, he is already four goals above expectation, a swing that could be worth two extra wins over a campaign.
Vicario's save percentage has climbed from 65 to 77, and the goals conceded have fallen from over 1.5 per game to 0.9, despite only a modest drop in shots faced.
He has not been flawless. Two goals conceded from long range against Aston Villa last month and a pair of errors leading to shots, one resulting in a goal, have brought scrutiny.
Yet those moments sit within a campaign largely defined by command and consistency. Now established within the leadership group of a young squad, he has given Spurs the composure they missed last season.
Leandro Trossard has been one of Arsenal’s most reliable performers this season. His game is built on intelligence and timing. He reads space instinctively, drifts into half-pockets and combines fluidly with those around him, his movements creating space for others.
Two-footed in dribbling, passing and shooting, and calm in decision-making, the 30-year-old Belgium international acts as a natural connector in every phase of the game.
In what is a younger Arsenal squad, his experience carries even more weight. Away at Fulham last month, he was the oldest outfield player on the pitch for the visitors and showed his know-how in the game, scoring its only goal.
Beyond his involvement in build-up and defensive work, Trossard remains just as sharp in front of goal, with four goals and four assists making him Arsenal’s most productive player so far this season.
His thunderous strike from the edge of the box last time out against Sunderland, followed by the quick footwork and close control that created space for himself, underlined just how dangerous he remains inside the area.
As for my prediction?
💬 “Gabriel is a formidable defender — second only to Virgil van Dijk in the Premier League over the past decade, I would suggest — and Arsenal are likely to be more vulnerable for his absence in the coming weeks.
“But they have a wealth of options in that department, including Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie, who are more than just promising understudies. Injuries are the main reason to doubt Arsenal this weekend, but Tottenham look rather depleted too, so might not be equipped to capitalise.”
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham
Collin says:
💬 “Although Piero Hincapie is no slouch, Gabriel’s absence gives Spurs hope, and their strong away form adds further optimism against Arsenal’s otherwise impenetrable defence.
“With both sides cautious, this derby should be a tight, cagey affair, where set-piece proficiency may ultimately decide an even tie.”
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham
Welcome to week 12 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where each week since the season began, four of us — a guest subscriber, six-year-old Wilfred, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
So how will this week’s guest subscriber, Collin, a Tottenham supporter from Richmond, Virginia see the north London derby?
I can probably guess what he’ll choose for his game of the week, but the big question is whether he will go with his head or his heart when it comes to predicting the outcome.
Over to you, Collin…
Pedro Porro’s reliability and the importance of his near-perfect availability record this season cannot be overstated.
Porro is Tottenham’s only defender as adept at creating opportunities from the wing as he is at helping build through central positions, and he is crucial to Frank’s plan to move the ball up the pitch.
International windows had once been a chance for a breather for Spaniard Porro but now they just mean more football, further testing his consistency of availability yet.
I wrote this week that against arch-rivals and Premier League leaders Arsenal, Tottenham would need the best of Porro if they are to leave the Emirates with a result. Instead, he is on the bench.
However, given his importance to their attacking potency and defensive solidity, he could prove a key difference maker as a substitute if things are tight in the second half.
Thomas Frank has gone for a back five, with Joao Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur in front, to frustrate Arsenal. It makes sense when you consider Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison remain injured while Xavi Simons is still adjusting to the physicality of the Premier League.
There will be a lot of pressure on Mohammed Kudus to create chances for them. The battle between him and Calafiori will be fascinating to watch.
Dominic Solanke has endured an injury-hit campaign for Tottenham.
In the below interview, he tells The Athletic why his recovery has taken so long, his aims for the rest of the season, and how he's killed the time.
Enjoy.
GO FURTHER
Dominic Solanke interview: ‘When a few of us come back from injury, Spurs can do big things’
Let's take a look.
Thomas Frank has opted for the below XI for today's derby match.
Tottenham (3-4-3): Vicario; Danso, Romero, Van de Ven; Spence, Palhinha, Bentancur, Udogie; Kudus, Richarlison, Odobert.
Mikel Arteta's men line up as follows.
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Hincapie, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Eze; Saka, Merino, Trossard.
Only a few minutes away from both team line-ups being announced.
Will Riccardo Calafiori be fit enough to start or should Myles Lewis-Skelly come in? Who will Thomas Frank play up front? And will Arteta take the handbrake off and pick Eberechi Eze in midfield?
Not long at all until we find out…
Back to on-pitch matters now, and Thomas Frank? That’s an interesting situation.
He was appointed by a Tottenham chairman (Daniel Levy) who has since been dismissed, to work under a sporting director (Johan Lange) whose power has been diluted by the appointment of another (Fabio Paratici).
Given the shifting dynamics at the club, the chances of political tension seem high. In addition to this, there’s an element of the Spurs support already disenchanted with the product on the pitch.
It’s much too early to talk about Frank’s job security. Given his squad’s limitations and absentees, it would be disingenuous.
Nevertheless, there’s a negative energy at the club that a bad performance away to Arsenal today will only make worse.
Arsenal are ahead of rivals Tottenham in all areas. Except one.
The Emirates Stadium can host six non-football events a year. The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium can host 30.
Ahead of the north London derby, The Athletic explains the many reasons why Tottenham are way ahead of Arsenal when it comes to stadium revenues, including boxing, Beyonce, and the massive advantage of having a retractable pitch.
Read more below.
GO FURTHER
Arsenal may be winning on the pitch, but Spurs are way ahead in the battle of stadiums
We have reached half-time in the early Premier League match this afternoon and struggling Leeds are leading Aston Villa.
Daniel Farke’s team are in desperate need of points and are 1-0 up at the break thanks to a Lukas Nmecha goal.
This one could be an entertaining second half!
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