XRP snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday, October 31, as spot ETF filings fueled speculation about an imminent launch of XRP-spot ETFs.
The US government shutdown stretched to 31 days. The shutdown left the SEC with a skeleton staff, delaying reviews of ETFs beyond their final decision deadlines. ETF issuers have filed S-1 amendments to circumvent the shutdown and avoid potentially lengthy delays to the launch of spot ETFs.
These filings are expected to enable XRP-spot ETFs to begin trading in November and trigger an influx of much-needed institutional money. Crucially, sticky institutional inflows into XRP-spot ETFs could significantly reduce price volatility. Reduced price volatility could boost demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset, as seen with Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitwise Invest joined a growing number of crypto-spot ETF issuers, filing an S-1 amendment to potentially allow the launch of its XRP-spot ETF in 20 days.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart shared sections of the filing, stating:
“Only the Bitwise XRP ETF has the shorter language that might allow it to launch in 20 days. But tons of issuers filing amended and updated documents past day+.”
The S-1 stated:
“This registration statement shall hereafter become effective in accordance with the provisions of Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933.”
Bitwise’s filing came after the launch of other crypto-spot ETFs earlier this week. These ETFs did not include ‘delaying amendment’ language, allowing them to launch despite the US government shutdown. Canary Funds also filed an S-1 amendment, removing the ‘delaying amendment’ terms this week. The Canary Funds XRP-spot ETF could be the next crypto ETF to debut on Wall Street, potentially giving it a first-to-market advantage.
For context, ETF issuers are filing amended S-1s to remove a ‘delaying amendment’ clause that gives the SEC control over when the ETFs could launch. Without a ‘delaying amendment,’ registrations can become auto-effective, allowing ETFs to begin trading after a 20-day waiting period.
Exchanges must approve issuers’ 8-A filings before XRP-spot ETFs can launch after the 20-day waiting period. Issuers file 8-As with the exchanges to get listing approvals, allowing them to trade on the exchanges. The Bitwise and Canary Funds XRP ETFs have filed 8-As with the Nasdaq, meaning the Nasdaq must approve the paperwork before the ETFs can begin trading.
However, the timelines could vary if the US government reopens before the 20-day waiting period. The SEC has the authority to review the filings during the waiting period and could:
We previously speculated that XRP-spot ETF issuers could remove ‘delaying amendment’ language, given the US Senate impasse.
Market experts expect substantial inflows into XRP-spot ETFs, potentially sending XRP to new highs. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has been increasingly optimistic about demand for XRP-spot ETFs. He recently increased his XRP-spot ETF inflow forecast, stating:
“I may have been a little bearish. We’re going to hold to that number. If it hits that number, at least I’ll be right, and if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right because we got at least $5 billion. If we saw that kind of inflow, I think it would definitely be in the top 20 ETFs of all time, if not in the top 10.”
Notably, the REX-Ospreys XRP ETF has reported total net inflows of $124.9 million since launch. While the ETF is a hybrid, robust demand suggests strong institutional appetite for XRP-spot ETFs, reinforcing McClurg’s bullish outlook.
XRP gained 2.84% on Friday, October 31, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.4% loss to close at $2.5094. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced 1.19%.
Despite snapping a four-day losing streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. However, several events could change the narrative.
Key technical levels to watch include:
In the upcoming sessions, several key events could influence near-term price trends:
These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.35, bringing the $2.2 support level into play. If breached, the $2.0 would be the next key support level.
Despite the rebound from sub-$2.2 levels, the descending channel revealed repeated tests of upper resistance in early October. However, each breakout broke down at a lower price level. See the chart below for reference.
These bullish events could send XRP toward $2.62, allowing buyers to target $2.80. A sustained move through $2.80 may pave the way toward the $3.0 psychological level and open the door to testing the all-time high of $3.66.
Despite October’s loss, XRP continues to trade within a narrowing range ahead of key events. See the chart below. The current structure suggests an imminent move, with the US Senate, the SEC, and the OCC in focus. A break above the upper band will be key for XRP to retest the $3.0 level.
XRP’s near-term trajectory will now hinge on Capitol Hill and the timing of XRP-spot ETF launches.
The token slid 11.84% in October, cutting year-to-date gains to just 19.71%. However, the launch of XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly legislation, including the passing of the Market Structure Bill, could send the token to new highs.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.
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